Rutgers-Eagleton Poll Finds New Jerseyans Want New Governor to Cut Taxes but Not Sure it Will be Done

Respondents mixed as to state’s future under Governor-elect Chris Christie

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J. – Nearly half of New Jersey residents want to see Governor-elect Chris Christie cut taxes in his first year in office, according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll taken after the Nov. 3 election. Only 6 percent think it is very likely that taxes will be cut, while about half (49 percent) think it is somewhat likely. At the same time, only 29 percent believe the future of New Jersey after Christie’s election will be better than it was before the election, with 26 percent saying it will remain unchanged and 21 percent projecting the future to be worse. Nearly a quarter (24 percent) had no opinion about the post-election future.

The poll of 903 New Jersey adults was conducted Nov. 6-10 and has a margin of error of +/-3.3 percentage points. The survey pool comprises 451 respondents who had been interviewed before the election and 452 new respondents.

New Jerseyans Want their Taxes Cut – No Other Priority Comes Close

The poll asked both voters and nonvoters to identify what they believe should be the new governor’s top priority next year. Cutting property taxes led the way at 27 percent, followed by cutting other taxes at 20 percent. Reducing unemployment (10 percent) and supporting public education and fighting corruption (each 6 percent) trailed the tax cuts.

Christie voters were much more likely than those who voted for Gov. Jon Corzine to make tax cuts their priority, 56 percent to 36 percent. Corzine voters were much more likely to name public education support as their priority, 9 percent to 1 percent.

Residents are somewhat cynical about their named priorities actually getting done next year, however. Only 8 percent believe it is very likely that their priority will get accomplished, while 46 percent think it is somewhat likely. Even Christie voters are not all that certain, with only 14 percent saying very likely and 61 percent saying somewhat likely.

Respondents who prioritize cutting taxes are even less certain – only 5 percent think it is very likely property taxes will be cut, while 46 percent think it is somewhat likely. They are a little more likely to believe other taxes will be cut, with 8 percent saying very likely and 53 percent somewhat likely.

“Taxes are clearly on the minds of New Jerseyans,” said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science. “While that’s not surprising, it is interesting how even a large percentage of Corzine voters want Christie to cut taxes in the next year. However, at the same time, people are pretty uncertain as to whether this can even be done. This suggests that while the pressure will be on Christie to take visible action on taxes, few will be surprised if little actually changes.”

Residents Strongly Support Closing the Budget Gap by Reducing Spending

With New Jersey facing a projected budget deficit of $8 billion and Christie bound by the state constitution to balance it, the poll asked how that might be accomplished. Well over half of residents call for a reduction in spending, while only about one-quarter support a tax increase. Another 6 percent support a mix of spending cuts and tax increases.

Among those who favor spending cuts, about 25 percent admit they do not know what should be cut. Another 10 percent simply give a nonfocused “cut spending” response. Almost a quarter (23 percent) believe that spending cuts should start with reducing waste and inefficiency, 9 percent mention cutting government employee pay and benefits, and another 9 percent call for a cut in government jobs. Corzine voters are more likely to look for savings in waste and inefficiency (32 percent) compared to Christie voters (22 percent), while 10 percent of Christie voters cite program cuts as a way to save money, compared to only 4 percent of Corzine voters.

“There is a clear sense that government spending in New Jersey is out of control,” said Redlawsk, “and residents do not see taxes as the way to solve the budget problem. But people in New Jersey also have no real sense of how to go about making the needed cuts. And when we tell them that the budget gap is $8 billion, they are slightly more likely to support tax increases of some kind than when they are not informed about the size of the gap (34 percent to 30 percent).

Christie Wins on Turnout, Partisan Support, and Independents

While a larger percentage of poll respondents said they voted than was true of the general population, the results show that Christie benefited from increased turnout among Republicans, less party drop-off and overwhelming support from independents. In the poll, 70 percent of Democrats said they voted, compared to 87 percent of Republicans; Christie won 88 percent of all Republican votes, while Corzine won only 79 percent of Democrats. Independent Chris Daggett drew much more heavily from Democrats, winning 11 percent compared to only 3 percent of Republicans. Examining racial and ethnic voting, Christie won 52 percent of white voters, 32 percent of Latino voters and 12 percent of black voters in the poll.

“Turnout was absolutely the key to this election,” said Redlawsk. “The turnout gap between Republicans and Democrats was 17 points among our respondents, and the additional cohesiveness of Republicans added to Christie’s victory. Had Democrats even come within 10 points of Republican turnout, it would have closed the gap between Corzine and Christie.

”The poll shows that voters were just as likely to say they voted against other candidates as to say they voted for their candidate. “This election was as much about Corzine as anything,” noted Redlawsk. While 51 percent of Christie voters said they cast their vote more for him, 44 percent said they were voting against the other candidates. Moreover, fully 72 percent of Chris Daggett voters cast their vote as a protest against the others.

As for Daggett’s showing – he captured 6 percent of voters after earlier polls showed him winning about 20 percent – the new poll found that among the 92 percent of respondents who did not vote for Daggett, lack of familiarity (27 percent) and little chance of winning (25 percent) were they leading reasons he was not selected in the voting booth.

Open Space Wins by a Nose

Voters in the poll supported the open space bond, 52 percent to 48 percent, nearly mirroring the Election Day result of 53 percent to 47 percent. Democrats were much more likely to vote for open space, with nearly three-quarters voting yes. Only 38 percent of Republicans and 43 percent of independents said they supported the bond issue.

Media Contact: David Redlawsk
732-932-9384, ext. 285
E-mail: redlawsk@rutgers.edu