True to his word, New Jersey governor will not seek GOP presidential nomination in 2012
Rutgers Today: Why did Gov. Christie decide not to run? Was that the right decision?
David Redlawsk: First, I think we have to take him at face value for what he said a long time ago. The governor said he was not ready to be president and did not have the fire in the belly needed to run. The last couple of weeks must have made running look much more appealing, but reality appears to have taken over. It would have been nearly impossible to mount an effective challenge in the earliest states this late into the game. It requires staffing, money, and time on the ground, all of which can’t be created overnight. And it’s especially true that early states – Iowa and New Hampshire – require massive grassroots efforts, which take time to build. While there are risks to this decision for the governor’s future, running would have been far riskier. A failed 2012 run for the presidency would have almost certainly ended his political career, even making re-election as governor unlikely, given that he would have to abandon New Jersey to run.
Rutgers Today: What are the risks for Christie from today's decision?
Redlawsk: There seems little doubt that while Gov. Christie loves being the governor of New Jersey, he is also ambitious. I would not read this as a statement that he will never run for president. But the biggest risk to today’s decision now is that any near-term path to the presidency will be blocked if a Republican beats President Obama in 2012. Christie will at best have to look at 2020, when he will no longer be a sitting governor. Even if he wins re-election in 2013, he will be done by January 2018, leaving a couple of years potentially in the wilderness. And if he doesn’t win re-election as governor, he’s toast. While he might score a cabinet position in a Republican administration, such positions are not a strong base from which to mount a presidential campaign.
Rutgers Today: Who benefits most from this decision?
Redlawsk: Mitt Romney can certainly relax a bit. With Rick Perry showing significant weakness as a Tea Party-wing alternative, Romney’s path to the nomination seems clearer than it was. If one of the candidates the Tea Party can stomach wins Iowa – Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Ron Paul, whoever – and Romney goes on to blow everyone away in New Hampshire, Romney gains real momentum. He can use his significant money edge to win enough of the next tier of states to push most of his competition out. With strong conservatives lacking a single clear alternative to Romney, this seems to give him a real edge.
Rutgers Today: Can President Obama breathe more easily now?
Redlawsk: Probably not. The Obama team most likely has been hoping for a weaker alternative to Romney. He is the one Republican, including Christie, who can potentially appeal best to more moderate voters. While conservative Republicans may not like it, the fact is the general election will be decided by moderates, not Tea Party supporters. Christie’s decision to stay out crystallizes the field and leaves Romney as the most electable Republican. If anything, the Obama re-election has gotten harder, since Republicans can now focus on the field they have rather than the field they wish they had. In the end, clarifying the field now is far better for Republicans than continuing to wish for something new.
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