Adler Holds Lead in New Jersey 3rd District Congressional Race

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J – In the already heated battle in New Jersey’s 3rd Congressional District, incumbent Democrat John Adler holds a narrow lead over Republican challenger Jon Runyan among all registered voters, according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. With third party candidate Peter DeStefano included, Adler leads 31 percent to 25 percent, while DeStefano polls at 4 percent, and 34 percent say “don’t know.” Another 6 percent say they will not vote in the congressional race. Without DeStefano on the ballot, Adler leads Runyan, 35 percent to 28 percent, with 23 percent undecided and 13 percent not voting.

The telephone poll of 421 registered voters living in the 3rd Congressional District was conducted Aug. 5 to 8, 2010, and has a margin of error of +/-4.8 percentage points. The district includes parts of Burlington, Camden and Ocean counties.

While Adler leads among all registered voters, Runyan pulls ahead, 36 percent to 35 percent, among voters who are paying the most attention to the campaign.

Adler support higher among self-identified “likely voters”

Among registered voters who say they are “very” or “somewhat” likely to vote in November, Adler’s lead grows 10 points, 40 percent to 30 percent, with 22 percent undecided and 8 percent saying they would not vote in this race. The 10-point lead holds when DeStefano is included.      Among Republican voters, 60 percent say they will vote for Runyan, while 56 percent of Democrats will support Adler. At the same time, 19 percent of Republicans and 29 percent of Democrats don’t know whom they support. Among independents, Adler holds a four percentage- point lead, but 45 percent are undecided.

“It is hard in August to predict who really will vote in November,” said poll Director and Rutgers Professor of Political Science David Redlawsk. “While a simple ‘likely voter’ screen suggests that Adler does better, more voters say they will vote than actually turn out.”

Runyan stronger among those most paying attention

While “likely” voters give Adler a lead, his advantage disappears among the 54 percent of registered voters who report following the election “very” or “somewhat” closely. Runyan outpolls Adler from this group, 36 percent to 35 percent, and DeStefano receives 4 percent; 24 percent don’t know. About 1 percent say they will not vote in this race. However, Adler has a strong lead among those following the election “not too closely” or not at all, 24 percent to 11 percent for Runyan and 3 percent for DeStefano. The majority of these registered voters either answer “don’t know” (49 percent) or that they will not vote (13 percent).

“While likely voters put Adler up strongly, it’s more realistic to analyze those who follow the election news,” Redlawsk said. “In a midterm election, these are the voters most likely to turn out. If that pattern holds, then the race is essentially a dead heat.”

Experience versus the outsider

By a 22-percentage point margin, registered voters say they prefer an experienced candidate over a political outsider. Among those who favor experience, Adler is preferred to Runyan, 38 percent to 18 percent, with 4 percent choosing DeStefano. Among voters preferring an outsider, DeStefano polls 9 percent, while Runyan gets 36 percent and Adler 14 percent.

The DeStefano effect

Respondents were given two ballot tests: the first with candidates Adler and Runyan (with “don’t know” and “will not vote” options), and a second test that included DeStefano. Among registered voters, Adler’s support was more adversely affected than Runyon’s by DeStefano, who picked up 6 percent of initial Adler voters, but only 2 percent of Runyan supporters. DeStefano also added 14 percent of those who initially said they would not vote. These effects are relatively small however, given the low level of support for DeStefano overall.

In the Adler internal campaign poll reported in the press, DeStefano was tagged as a “Tea Party” candidate. However, given the controversy and uncertainty over his connection to the Tea Party movement, the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll simply labeled him as an “independent candidate.”

“We chose not to label DeStefano as a Tea Party candidate, and this no doubt lowered his support in the poll, compared to the internal Adler campaign poll,” said Redlawsk. “However, given the level of debate over his status, even labeling him as Tea Party would most likely have had a limited effect, especially among those voters most paying attention.”

State of the race in the 3rd District

“As a well-funded incumbent, Adler starts with an advantage,” Redlawsk said, “but he’ll have a fight on his hands due to voter frustration, and the competitiveness of the district.”