At the dawn of a new decade, Rutgers Today challenged university scholars across half a dozen disciplines – economics, American studies, history, political science, law, science, and sociology – to predict what the next few years hold in store. Based on the opening years of the new millennium, we asked, what trends do you see evolving, and what might life look like when this newly hatched decade draws to a close? In this article, we interview Jenny Kehl.
Jenny Kehl, an assistant professor of political science in Camden, predicts that two words will define U.S. diplomatic realities over the next 10 years – resource scarcity.
The impact of such shortages is already felt along the Nile and Euphrates rivers and in the Mekong Delta, the scholar notes; American policymakers ignore the warning signs elsewhere at their own peril.
“The biggest mistake we could make is to fail to recognize the link between resource scarcity – around water issues in particular – and regional stability,” Kehl notes. “I think that conflicts will only heighten in these regions as those in power become more competitive to control those resources.
“One thing I’m concerned about will be the scramble for private control of public goods, which has the potential to cause us much conflict.”
Within America’s borders, Kehl forecasts a worsening of political divisions that are already affecting Washington, where she believes blind party loyalties rather than the interests of their constituents are the engine driving elected officials.
As voters become increasingly aware of the schism, they will be less tolerant if gridlock continues to stymie progress on health-care reform, job stimulus, and other vital issues, she says.
“People who have been paying attention for the last 10 years know this stagnation is consequential, but now I see it more exposed to the general public,” Kehl says. “At some point, this type of dysfunction will become less well received, and the public will demand that their officials work more effectively together for meaningful progress.”
– Fredda Sacharow