2010 Congressional Vote in New Jersey Eight Months Out; Most Incumbents in Good Shape but Many Voters Undecided
While 33 percent of registered voters say they will vote for a Democrat for Congress, and 31 percent say they will vote for a
The poll of 953 New Jersey adults conducted Feb. 19-22 included 886 registered voters. The full registered voter sample has a margin of error of +/-3.3 percentage points. Vote intention questions were asked of half samples which have a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percentage points.
“The overall picture statewide seems to suggest that Republicans are at parity with Democrats in 2010, but this is misleading,” said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers University. “While the statewide vote may be close, it is less likely to be so in most congressional districts. While we did not poll at the district level, in the 3rd District, Democrat John Adler is likely to face a very difficult challenge. Still, at the aggregate level incumbents of both parties start the year with an advantage over potential general election challengers.”
When voters were asked about voting for their current member of Congress or for a challenger – without identifying either by party – they gave incumbents a 32 percent to 25 percent lead statewide. Across GOP-held districts, incumbents hold a 7-point lead while overall, Democratic incumbents are ahead by 16 points across their districts. At the same time, voters asked about their 2010 voting plans were much more likely to say they “don’t know” or that they do not plan to vote.
“The wildcards this early in the year are not knowing how many challengers will mount strong campaigns and how undecided voters will feel in eight months,” said Redlawsk. “Historically, Rutgers-Eagleton Polls have shown large numbers of undecideds until quite late in an election year. A strong anti-Democrat or even anti-incumbent sentiment could have a base to build on, but it will also need well-funded candidates who appeal to independents.”
Independents present a mixed picture
Statewide, it appears that independent voters lean towards Republicans for the 2010 election as they did in the 2009 gubernatorial election when Chris Christie outpolled Jon Corzine with independents, 60 percent to 30 percent. Independents asked about their congressional vote by party choose Republicans, 30 percent to 17 percent. But another 12 percent say they will vote for someone else, 32 percent say they don’t know, and 9 percent say they will not vote. Without labeling candidates by party, independents are evenly split between incumbents and challengers, 28 percent each, while 30 percent don’t know and 14 percent say they will not vote.
More importantly, independents with a preference living in Democratic districts are slightly more likely to vote for a Democrat while those in Republican districts strongly support a Republican. While based on very small samples, the independents’ pro-Democratic margin in districts with Democratic incumbents is 26 percent to 22 percent. In Republican districts, independents vote Republican, 30 to 14 percent. According to Redlawsk, this suggests that unless a strong anti-incumbent campaign develops, independents may be mostly drawn to the party of their incumbent congressman, but there are risks for Democrats in the current environment.
Obama voters less certain to vote Democratic in 2010
Not surprisingly, a large share of John McCain voters (75 percent) plan to vote for a Republican for Congress, while 5 percent will vote for a Democrat. But just 57 percent of Barack Obama voters say they will vote for a Democrat this time around and 8 percent choose the GOP. Only 11 percent of McCain voters say they are undecided about November’s vote; twice as many Obama voters (23 percent) have no preference for Congress, and another 8 percent say they will not vote. Virtually all McCain voters claim they will vote in 2010.
Corzine voters are more likely to vote for a fellow Democrat for Congress (68 percent) than Chris Christie voters are to vote for a Republican (58 percent.) According to Redlawsk, the larger overall support for Obama in 2008 compared to Corzine’s in 2009 accounts for the difference. Many Obama voters had already defected from Corzine in 2009, leaving only stronger Democratic voters remaining. Among registered voters who did not vote for governor, twice as many support a Democrat for Congress (41 percent) than a Republican (21 percent.).
Obama approval does not mean long coattails
While 57 percent of New Jersey registered voters approve of President Obama’s job performance, only 51 percent say they will vote for a Democrat for Congress in 2010. Twelve percent say they will vote for a Republican, 10 percent say they do not expect to vote and 22 percent are undecided.
Of the 37 percent who disapprove of Obama’s job performance, 61 percent say they will vote for a Republican while 8 percent will vote for a Democrat despite their disapproval of Obama. Another 8 percent say they will not vote, and 15 percent are undecided.
Those approving of the president’s job performance are much more likely to say they will vote for their incumbent congressman, 42 percent to 15 percent for a challenger. Another 22 percent say they will abstain and 22 percent don’t know. The opposite is true of those who disapprove – 40 percent say they will vote for a challenger, compared to 19 percent for an incumbent. But one-third don’t know and 8 percent will not vote.
Worried voters say they will vote for Democrats; less worried support Republicans
Fifty-one percent of registered voters who worry “a lot” about aspects of their personal financial situation say they will vote for a Democrat for Congress in 2010, while 42 percent of those who do not worry “a lot” plan to vote for a Republican. Across five concerns – housing, credit card debt, heath insurance, jobs and saving for retirement – 16 percent of voters say none of these worry them “a lot,” while 36 percent worry “a lot” about four or all five concerns. Yet this does not translate to voting for challengers against incumbents. Across all levels of worry, voters pick incumbents by 3 to 10 point margins. Those who worry most are actually more likely to say they favor an incumbent.
Looking specifically at concerns about health insurance coverage, 62 percent of registered voters worry “a lot,” 20 percent worry “a little,” and 18 percent worry “none at all.” Democrats running for Congress have an advantage among those who worry “a lot,” 38 percent to 26 percent, while those who worry only “a little” support Republicans, 36 percent to 32 percent. Those without concerns about health care support a Republican candidate, 44 percent to 17 percent. Similar patterns hold for other personal financial worries.
Change in the air?
A majority of registered voters in New Jersey (52 percent) believe the change Obama promised in his campaign is happening too slowly. Only 32 percent of these voters say they will vote Democratic in 2010, while 30 percent say they will vote for the Republican for Congress. But 20 percent are undecided.
Of the 13 percent who say change is happening too quickly, 71 percent say they will vote Republican, while 12 percent plan to vote for the Democrat. Only 8 percent do not know their candidate preference and 4 percent say they will not vote.
Thirty-one percent of New Jersey voters think the pace of change in Washington is “about right.” Of these, 49 percent say they will vote Democratic while 13 percent will vote Republican. Twenty-two percent don’t know and 12 percent say they will not vote.
Media Contact: David Redlawsk
732-932-9384, ext. 285
E-mail: redlawsk@rutgers.edu