Rebound or Redux? New Advance & Rutgers Report Examines Mid-Year Hitch in Economic Recovery

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J. – Now two years since the official “end” of the Great Recession, another patch of economic uncertainty has arisen despite overall long-term improvements in the output and labor market conditions of the United States. In the new Advance & Rutgers Report, “Economic Soft Patch 2: A Second-Half Rebound or Redux?” sponsored by real estate owner and developer Advance Realty, authors James W. Hughes, dean of Rutgers University’s Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy, and Joseph J. Seneca, university professor and an economist at the Bloustein School, discuss the recent slowdown in economic recovery as a result of a series of one-time negative events as well as potential deeper national and global structural problems.

Authors Hughes and Seneca indicate that June 2011 marked the 16th straight month of private-sector payroll employment increases in the U.S., with a gain of approximately 945,000 jobs in the first six months of 2011. However, higher oil prices, harsh weather, supply-chain disruptions from the March 2011 natural disaster in Japan, and the debate to extend the U.S. debt ceiling contributed to a new economic “soft patch” similar to that of early 2010. After a strong early start to the year, there was a sharp decline in private-sector employment growth in May and June.

“If the pace of job growth shown in the first six months of 2011 continues, the overall increase for all of 2011 would be almost 1.9 million jobs, which is 61 percent higher than in 2010,” the authors note in the report. “While this is certainly a move in the right direction, the challenges currently facing the economy are greater and the risks are significant.”

The Advance & Rutgers Report is published by the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy, with support from Advance Realty. “Economic Soft Patch 2: A Second-Half Rebound or Redux?” is available here.

Media Contact: Karyn Olsen
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