Three in 10 New Jerseyans Say Abortion Is Primary Factor in 2024 Vote Choice

Three-quarters say abortion should be legal in all or most cases; three-quarters are concerned bans would lead to unnecessary health issues

As abortion reenters the spotlight on the national election stage, three in 10 New Jerseyans say they would only vote for a candidate who shares their stance on abortion, according to the latest poll in the New Jersey Health Matters series by the New Jersey Health Care Quality Institute in partnership with the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll.

Three-quarters say they are concerned about bans on abortion causing unnecessary health issues, and a large majority say abortion should be legal in all or most cases.

When asked to think about how the issue of abortion may influence their vote next year, 28 percent say they would only vote for a candidate who shares their views on abortion. Another 50 percent say a candidate’s position on abortion is just one of many important factors. Sixteen percent claim abortion isn't an important factor to their vote at all.

Fifty-eight percent are “very concerned” that bans on abortion would lead to unnecessary health problems among pregnant patients who experience complications, and another 20 percent are “somewhat concerned.” Less than one in five say they are “not too concerned” (11 percent) or “not at all concerned” (6 percent).

Regarding abortion, more generally, 46 percent of New Jerseyans say it should be “legal in all cases” and another 31 percent say “most cases.” Twelve percent say it should be “illegal in most cases” and 4 percent say it should be “illegal in all cases.”

“New Jerseyans mirror public opinion nationwide when it comes to how abortion will affect their vote, but they are even more concerned than Americans, as a whole, when it comes to the health problems abortion may cause and are more supportive of abortion, in general,” said Ashley Koning, an assistant research professor and director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling (ECPIP) at Rutgers University–New Brunswick. “At a statewide level, we have consistently seen New Jerseyans supportive of reproductive health measures throughout the decades and, more recently, worried about the implications of Roe being overturned and ranking reproductive issues as an important factor in their 2022 midterm vote.”

When it comes to who to vote for in 2024, abortion seems likely to be a factor for many demographic groups, but less than four in 10 of any group say it will be the primary one. Democrats (39 percent) and 18- to 34-year-olds (35 percent) are most likely to say they would only vote for a candidate who shares their views on abortion. Women are more likely than men to say this (32 percent to 24 percent). The likelihood that abortion is the primary factor to someone’s vote increases with income and education but decreases with age. Republicans, on the other hand, are the most likely of any group to say the issue isn't an important factor to their vote choice.

Concern that abortion bans might lead to unnecessary health problems among pregnant patients is high across the board: A majority of every demographic is “very concerned” about this, with the exception of Republicans (at 27 percent). While more than half of Republicans say they are at least “somewhat” concerned, they express the least concern of any group, with 23 percent saying they are “not too concerned” and 16 percent “not at all concerned.”

At least four in 10 of every demographic group say abortion should be legal in all cases and a solid majority in each group say it should be legal in all or most. The only exception is Republicans, though more than half of this group believe it should be legal in all (24 percent) or most (31 percent) cases. Democrats and women are the two groups where support for legalization in all cases crosses the 50 percent threshold (62 percent and 52 percent, respectively).

“Our Health Matters poll shows widespread support for abortion in all or most situations,” said Linda Schwimmer, president and CEO of the New Jersey Health Care Quality Institute. “Access to reproductive health care services are a critical part of overall health and wellbeing.”

Results are from a statewide poll of 1,512 adults contacted through the probability-based Rutgers-Eagleton/SSRS Garden State Panel via web and live calling from March 26 to April 8. The full sample has a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.